The struggle in Ukraine has turned Russian President Vladimir Putin right into a pariah – at the least within the West.
The USA is attempting to take away Moscow from the Group of 20 (G20) block of countries and continues to penalise Russia with sanctions together with its European companions, that are concurrently dashing to wean themselves from Russian oil.
There are additionally loud and rising calls to strive Putin at worldwide courts for struggle crimes.
However on the similar time, Russia stays a member of the United Nations Safety Council, making it a veto energy and pivotal to future voting points, whereas highly effective nations on the worldwide stage, corresponding to China and India, haven’t moved from Putin’s facet.
Given the atrocities Putin is accused of committing, it appears nearly inconceivable that he might ever once more discover himself in good standing within the West.
Nonetheless, historical past teaches that as a rule, leaders who begin wars are usually not all the time solid apart.
“There have definitely been leaders who’ve launched unlawful aggressive wars with excessive civilian casualties however have however been accepted in some circles internationally, corresponding to [US] President George W Bush and Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon,” Stephen Zunes, professor of politics and worldwide research on the College of San Francisco, advised Al Jazeera.
“Nonetheless, with no main nation supporting Russia’s aggression, it’s onerous to think about that Putin won’t proceed to be remoted within the worldwide neighborhood.”
Explaining why Russia was at specific danger of longer-term isolation, he mentioned: “The extent of bodily devastation and casualties to this point over a comparatively brief interval is probably the more severe in current many years which, mixed with the irredentist goals of the conquest, makes Russia’s struggle on Ukraine notably reprehensible within the eyes of the worldwide neighborhood.
“As well as, since Ukraine is a developed nation with superior communication capabilities, photos of the destruction are being broadcast internationally to an unprecedented diploma.”
However above all, the principle cause Russia has drawn such sharp condemnation is as a result of Ukrainians are predominantly white Christians dwelling in a complicated democratic society, mentioned Zunes, including that Western empathy is larger now than it has been for Palestinians and Iraqis, and different current victims of battle.
Ukraine could show to be the ultimate straw for world powers, however there have been hints earlier than the invasion that Putin was “steadily withdrawing” from worldwide cooperation, in line with Erdi Ozturk, affiliate professor in politics and worldwide relations at London Metropolitan College.
“[He is now] resorting to a brand new distinction between civilisations by synthesising nationalism with nostalgic visions of historical past, reminiscence, and faith.
“It has been undoubtedly making a jarring impact with Western powers, and evidently it is vitally troublesome for Putin to change into a ‘respectful’ chief within the eyes of a global public.”
Nonetheless, others consider that future cooperation with Russia is feasible, if not crucial.
Graeme Gill, professor emeritus on the College of Sydney and president of the Worldwide Council for Central and East European Research, advised Al Jazeera: “At some stage, the West goes to should shift from punishing Russia to working with Russia. Sadly, when this occurs might be decided as a lot by home concerns.
“As well as, there might be variations throughout the West about when such strikes ought to happen and what they need to be, with the EU in all probability cut up on this.”
Gill argued that the struggle in Ukraine was no completely different than the 2003 US invasion of Iraq, the 2011 NATO bombing of Libya, the alliance’s bombing of Serbia in 1999, or the Saudi-led coalition’s present struggle in Yemen.
“There’s a clear double customary working and that can’t be hidden by all of the rhetoric about worldwide regulation and Russian crimes,” he mentioned. “Horrible issues are being accomplished in Ukraine, and related issues have been accomplished elsewhere, but the worldwide therapy is completely different. Maybe this can be a cause why the loud condemnation of Russia within the West is just not typically echoed all through a lot of the remainder of the world, which has been content material to sentence Russia within the UN, however has not made a serious PR effort about it.”
Wanting forward, as criticism grows, reportedly even within the Kremlin, there may be rising hypothesis over Putin’s future.
However whereas Russian dissidents proceed to emphasize that the president and Russia are usually not synonymous and hope for a post-Putin future, “Putin will do all the pieces to remain in energy, and getting him out of workplace – both with the navy, intelligence providers or oligarchs – won’t be that simple” mentioned Erdi.
He added that Russia is an “huge energy” and has completely different ranges of partnerships with each China and Europe.
“It should [be] troublesome to fully reduce off Russia from the worldwide stage, particularly for only one man, specifically Putin.”